Hello. I’m going to be Johnny Raincloud for this discussion, and claim that there will be no original CCBS/Constraction theme in 2018.
Proving a negative is impossible, so I will attempt to demonstrate my position is true by assuming that there will be a 2018 CCBS line, and try to get to a contradiction. (For those of you who do the maths, proof by contradiction is a common(ish) proof method).
Assuming that there will be a 2018 CCBS line, we know that it is either a) Bionicle G3 or b) not Bionicle G3.
Let’s assume a) is true. We know that Lego planned to cancel Bionicle sometime in 2015, because that’s when JTO was written. We also know that these themes are usually planned out years in advance, so it would mean that this G3 was being planned out, at the latest, sometime in 2014. That means Lego would have had to made the call to bring back Bionicle before they decided to cancel G2. That’s a contradiction, and thus, a) is false.
Let’s assume b) is true. Again we know this thing was being planned out sometime during Invasion From Below. Fine. That makes sense. It seems as if Lego is planning on expanding their constraction lineup, having Bionicle run for a bit on its own, then joined by SW, then joined concurrently by this new 2018 theme. (Again, only assuming b is true). Then, Bionicle is axed in 2015. I’m going to go ahead, at this point, and jump out on a limb. I’m going to assume that the wisdom of the community is true, and that this was done because of less than stellar sales figures. If true, this is a trend we see in HF as well. It is then, at the very least, poor business practice, and at the most, incredibly stupid, to not kill the 2018 theme whilst still in development. By this logic, the 2018 theme should be dead, but assumption b) assumes the 2018 theme will come out. This is a contradiction, and proves b is false.
I have now proven both cases a and b false with contradictions, and am willing to conclude that there will not be a new CCBS/Constraction theme in 2018.
QED.
Our problem here is we don’t have anything here besides vague claims from unknown sources. If we had these leaks or got better descriptions we wouldn’t be having this debate.
I’ll be honest here, I don’t know how anybody is still arguing about whether G2 sold well when it so obviously didn’t. It’s been a year already and I guess some people are still in denial. Most people who would’ve taken interest didn’t even know G2 was a thing and it was probably too late if they ever found out, and this was mostly the fault of a lack of promoting the line at all.
@Azani I don’t intend for any of this to sound mean, and I don’t think everyone is in denial, but I think a lack of interest from average consumers is enough to tell you that it wasn’t exactly popular.
Wondering if TLG was being a little dishonest, as a community, makes a lot of sense. That being said, I feel like the quote “Overall, Bionicle products were successful” would implicate that the line was at least average as far as sales went. I don’t think that they would say that if sales were awful. I feel like; and this may be just me, but a lot of folks don’t take into account the other possibilities for why they axed G2 - maybe something else that they really wanted to keep was selling poorly.
Yeah, the topic was getting a little out of hand and we shut it down for a bit while we discussed what to do with it. Let’s try and keep discussion of “Voloctoreb” and all that to a minimum, yeah? There’s nothing of merit to discuss there.
I want to take a moment to briefly respond to this post:[quote=“DinosaursUnited, post:290, topic:40794”]
Hello. I’m going to be Johnny Raincloud for this discussion, and claim that there will be no original CCBS/Constraction theme in 2018.
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Okay, fair enough. I’m skeptical of that fact myself, but I do have a few issues with the logic used to determine this to be the case, so I’ll break down my opposition piece-by-piece.
Not necessarily true. I certainly don’t believe LEGO would take BIONICLE off shelves only to reboot it in 2018, but it’s not set in stone that the potential 2018 theme would have been initially conceptualized in 2014. Assuming that JTO was being written some time in 2015, it is entirely possible for LEGO to have begun brainstorming BIONICLE’s replacement OR a potential retooling of the concept once they decided to end G2, which would have been in 2015. Considering this new theme would, at the latest, be launching 2HY 2018, that would give it a 3+ year dev cycle, and plenty of time for it to come to fruition.
While admittedly very unlikely, it is not impossible to say that LEGO realized the mistakes made with G2 early on and, similarly to G1, opted to take it off shelves before irreparable damage was done to the BIONICLE brand. It is plausible, albeit incredibly unlikely, that they began to brainstorm ways to retool the concept and relaunch the franchise by 2018. Just look at what happened with NINJAGO when that theme got canceled and subsequently relaunched; they likely had the plans in the pipeline for a while, but they had thought ahead and planned for multiple potential avenues including both the franchise’s temporary end as well as its continuation/reboot.
This does NOT mean that I think BIONICLE is returning, there are a billion reasons why that isn’t going to happen, but the timing of cancellation and its possible development cycle wouldn’t necessarily be those reasons,
Again, not necessarily true. I don’t know the exact development cycle for new IPs but three years seems entirely possible for a constraction theme, not necessarily four.
Totally fair, it does seem that LEGO had an ambition to grow the CCBS brand and expand it to numerous different themes. Hero Factory, BIONICLE, Superheroes, Star Wars, Legends of Chima, and possible future new IPs. Makes sense that they’d want to expand that brand.
…what? You just used Star Wars as an example of LEGO growing the CCBS brand and dedicating time, money, and investment into the concept of it… but then cite Hero Factory as evidence for why the 2018 theme would be canceled? That doesn’t make any sense. I could just as easily say the fact that Star Wars both came out AND still continues to this day is evidence that LEGO still cares about CCBS and that they want to continue to grow the system with a new IP. Sure, BIONICLE G2 had bad sales and Hero Factory likely tapered off at the end, but it is much more likely that LEGO would continue to brainstorm and develop new ideas to utilize their CCBS system in ways that have the potential to be more profitable (new IPs and licensed properties) rather than retire the system altogether. By your logic, it was incredibly stupid and poor business practice to go ahead and release Star Wars, and while we don’t know how well that sub-theme is doing, it’s at least still continuing to make new sets.
TLDR; I’m not sure one way or the other if we’ll see a new CCBS theme in 2018. I don’t think there’s enough evidence to make a claim either way. I just don’t think that these “contradictions” concretely prove the claims that you’re trying to make. We don’t know enough about behind-the-scenes business decisions, sales, LEGO’s internal plan for CCBS, the logic behind the cancellation of themes, or the development timeline for new CCBS themes to make an informed conclusion either way.
I had thought Lego’s standard was 5 years advance planning for themes. My source is a Lego documentary, though I don’t remember which one. It’s also possible TLG policy has changed since then. [quote=“Mesonak, post:310, topic:40794”]
then cite Hero Factory as evidence for why the 2018 theme would be canceled?
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You’re right when you say this doesn’t make sense. I need to elaborate. First, HF sales were declining (from what I gather) towards its end. Had G2 been a success, this would have indicated problems with HF and not with Constraction. G2’s failure, however, is part of a trend of declining Constraction popularity in general. Star Wars, most likely, bucks this trend (or if it doesn’t, Disney is well compensating Lego to keep it around), but Lego’s IPs are not. So, I’m citing HF as evidence of a trend in conjunction with G2’s failure. [quote=“Mesonak, post:310, topic:40794”]
I just don’t think that these “contradictions” concretely prove the claims that you’re trying to make.
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True. I can never ever prove a negative. And even so, I’m applying mathematical concepts to try it, ideally, the strategy I took should only prove things like, “point (3,4) is not on a certain line.” I could well be wrong. [quote=“Peelacar, post:311, topic:40794”]
plastic machines
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Remember to bear in mind that even towards the end of its run, HF was still getting better marketing that all of G2. So possible declining sales might not be an indicator of lack of interest in CCBS, but sub par effort for G2 and declining interest for HF. I think HF’s main problem was that the sets were normally very similar. Invasion from Below did try and prevent this, but by then the coffin had been sealed in terms of interest and sales.
Ofc I might be wrong (I most likely am), these are just my thoughts
Personally, I think we’ll have to wait for more information on this one. At the very least set names from brickshelf. If all we have are lackluster and vague descriptions of these sets passed on by word of mouth, that’s a pretty good sign that this is a rumor. That being said, rumors in this community do tend to be true most of the time, so if there is any bearing to a possible 2018 ccbs theme, we should start getting more news and leaks as december approaches. If we get nothing else, then it’s safe to say that the rumor were false without the shadow of a doubt. Until we get possible set images, we’re in limbo. If this does happen to be a real theme, it’s possible that Lego may be testing the waters to see if original ccbs themes are still viable.
But yeah, I’m with you there; this could very likely be legitimate, or simply a hoax. For the next month or so, keeping a solid dose of skepticism would be wise - all the same, I’m keeping a look out.
