Mafia Revival

Yeah, put me in that dead chat.

I can neither confirm your theories or deny them.

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Innocent;
Ghid
Invader
Guilty;
Hawk flight
Unkown;
Racie
Holi
El
Willess
Jayzor

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Wait, so Jcton had me vote for him to make sure that he died? Iā€™m not sure I get it, but it makes me worried. Makes me think that weā€™re playing into the mafiaā€™s hands somehow. Ugh, hopefully I donā€™t wake up dead tomorrowā€¦

For a few seconds I thought you were listing all the mafia (with unknown being an unknown person). I was rather confused.

~W12~

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MWAHAHAHAHHAHHAHHHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHAHHAHHAHHAHHAHAHAAHHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHA and HA.

My suicide plan is perfection

Well, there is one unkown mafia member left

#Day 4

The night had been quiet, as people all huddled into the shelter to escape the wrath of the Sentient Tractor. Apparently it hadnā€™t appreciated the noise all the gunfire had made last night, and soon the power was out. Everyone was silent, until a sudden and very loud, very panicked, and very uncontrolled laugh, followed by the sound of four gunshots. Suspects were made of the four people who had shot @Invader39 dead.

@jayzor17: The last to shoot, had suffered a wound due to a bullet grazing him. Claims to have fumbled with the gun out of panic before trying to shoot the mafia member who had panicked Invader
@Racie02: The first to shoot, claims it was out of panic.
@Holi: Third to shoot, claims to have wanted to kill any mafia that might be trying to commit a crime.
@_el: Second to shoot, claims to have reacted to the first shot.

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RIP me. Itā€™s been fun.

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We all knew it would happen.

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Imma vote for Jayzor. There was no reason for him to fumble in the first place

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Iā€™m voting @jayzor17

Iā€™m voting for @Jakanader

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L, I thought we were friends. :stuck_out_tongue:

Hm, so an interesting puzzle today in itā€™s simplicity. Now, Iā€™m pretty sure we can eliminate Racie from the equation; we confirmed that she was innocent when we got Jak, right? Which becomes kinda problematic, because I wouldā€™ve assumed the first to shoot would be the culprit. Now itā€™s time to put our thinking hats on and think.

So something happened to set Racie off. Everyone else was probably reacting to her, then. Itā€™s dark, something happens, maybe the laugh, she assumes itā€™s mafia, the first shot goes off. Now, at this point the rest of us are definitely panicked, and L claimed that his shot was a reaction. This all depends on the timing, of course, but Iā€™d wager that his shot was a knee-jerk reaction, probably assuming he was in danger and trying to protect himself. Or perhaps Racie shooting first was an excuse for him to ensure that Invader died; there isnā€™t a lot of evidence, so I have a hard time ruling anything out.

Now we get to myself and Holi. Funnily enough, fumbling the weapon and getting my shot off late is totally something Iā€™d do; my coordination and dexterity are really bad irl. Thereā€™s no way OT would know that, though, so thatā€™s really just an aside. However, it could be argued that I fumbled the shot because I got wounded; somebody elseā€™s shot went wide, grazing me and causing a loss of control on my part and explaining why I shot last.

That leaves Holi. His statement about wanting to kill the mafia could just be a continuation of his trend of bloodthirsty vigilantismā€¦ or it could be the alibi heā€™s using to hide his involvement with the mafia. Waiting to shoot would also give him the opportunity to judge if he even needed to fire the gun. He can wait and see if Invaderā€™s suffered a mortal wound yet, and shoot when itā€™s clear he hasnā€™t. He wouldnā€™t want to wait too long, however, otherwise his intentions would be clear, so he didnā€™t wait for me before he fired.

This is added to the fact that weā€™ve seen Holi gunning for multi-kills this entire game. As others have said, itā€™s a common mafia tactic: presumably to get as many people killed at the same time, though I donā€™t know the exact logic. Perhaps heā€™s also been using it as a tool to make sure the other mafia members didnā€™t die in vain, at least taking another citizen with them to keep things sorta even.

So yeah, I vote for Holi.

Alright so listen up kiddos

Yā€™all going to have to take my word for it
Iā€™m confirmed innocent now, right? hopefully thatā€™s enough justification to trust me on this one

Iā€™m voting @jayzor17

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Did @Invader39 claim that he died?

First off: the four mafia are Jakanader, jcton, hawkflight, and one of these four. That means that willess and ghid (phone I swear stop autocorrecting ghid to this) are definitely innocent.

Second, hereā€™s how I see this scenario playing out:

The mafian laughs, startling me, and I fire.
L comes in from the death note universe, hears the first shot, thinks itā€™s Kira, and fires.
(In case itā€™s not clear, that means _el fires in reaction to the first shot)
Holi fires towards the sounds of gunfire, hitting Jayzor.
Jayzor shoots invader. (Note that Jayzor doesnā€™t give a reason for firing, just for why it ā€œtook him so long to fireā€. Even though being the last to fire should make sense if heā€™s not mafia.)

Iā€™m not going to vote quite yet, though. @Willess12, can you give any meta analysis?

I donā€™t know you tell me.

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With only one Mafia being unknown, theyā€™ll either lose or end up with everyone else dying, too.

First off, start up the vote tally:

Jayzor: 4 _el, Holi, Ghid, Willess
Racie58:0
Holi: 1 Jayzor
_el:0

Jak: 1 Jak

Second, if we get the mafia this round, we win. If notā€¦ Itā€™ll be 4-2. After the mafia kill again, itā€™ll be 3-2. If Hawkflight kills again, we nab him, leaving it at 3-1, and the next murder puts it at 2-1.

Thereā€™s four people who can be the unknown mafiano: Rac, Jayzor, Holi, and _el. Rac is innocent from the first round, so that leaves 3. Letā€™s say we kill one tonight, then Hawk kills a confirmed innocent, and the last mafian kills a confirmed innocent. That leaves us with one confirmed innocent, and two possible mafians. Theyā€™ll vote for each other, and the confirmed innocent determines whether we win or lose with his vote.

If Hawk doesnā€™t killā€¦ well, thereā€™s only 5 people left at that point (unless the defender does his/her job) so thereā€™s a good chance Hawk is on the suspect list. If he is, things play out as above. If he isnā€™t, there will be two suspects left, off one of them. If we get the right one, itā€™s 2-2, Mafia win. If we donā€™t, we wind up 3-1 and know Hawk is mafia, we win.

TLDR, thereā€™s five possibilities here

  1. We get the mafian this round, we win.
  2. We donā€™t get the mafian, we off hawkflight next round, the innocent votes right, we win
  3. We donā€™t get the mafian, we off hawkflight next round, the innocent votes wrong, mafia win.
  4. We donā€™t get the mafian, we donā€™t off hawk, we off the mafian, we win.
  5. We donā€™t get the mafian, we donā€™t off Hawk, we donā€™t off the mafian, mafia wins.

This doesnā€™t take into account the roles that the defender/inspector could play. But who are they? Wellā€¦

This sounds like heā€™s trying to say heā€™s the investigator, without saying it.

The defender is harder to determine, since heā€™ll have nothing to say. Butā€¦

And Invader died tonight. Whoever the defender is, probably didnā€™t read this. I already said that I was watching the topic like a hawk (no not a Hawkflight) at the time of the vote, so it isnā€™t me. Holi and Jayzor were both posting about this time. That leaves _el and Rac.
Of course, itā€™s possible the defender decided to protect Ghid instead, so this is arbitrary.

Anyway, Iā€™m going to take a gamble, trust Ghid, and vote Jayzor. Letā€™s see how this plays outā€¦

Lastly

Maybe later, I spent a long time making this.

@Omega_Tahu, just to be sure, would you say the defender/inspectorā€™s roles if they died? Or would you just say ā€œinnocentā€?

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I wouldā€™ve specified their roles if they died.